2022 Oscars Best Actress Predictions

Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

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2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST ACTRESS

UPDATED: Feb 6, 2022

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: While last year had this race wide open looking for a winner, which ended with Frances McDormand winning her third for “Nomadland,” another unknown year ensues for the lead actresses. 

With the BAFTA nominations throwing multiple wrenches (again) into the works, Lady Gaga (“House of Gucci”) is the only contender that stands with nominations at every televised ceremony. However, it would be far too simple to declare the race for over and await Gaga’s winning moment because the truth is, no one seems secure.

Before BAFTA, I would have assumed that Golden Globe winner Nicole Kidman (“Being the Ricardos”) and Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughter”) were the sure-fire bets. Now, after both of them failed to make the top two, following Round One of BAFTA voting, who knows? Of course, we all tend to overthink the potential lineup for several categories, but the conversations with voters suggest this is not one of those instances.

Colman and Kidman seem to have enough support, especially with their films making a run for screenplay and potential best picture bids. By my estimation, this leaves three spots remaining for about 10 actresses competing.

Gaga has worked the circuit, doing multiple interviews, Q&As, etc. However, her film is incredibly divisive among voting members, but the acting branch might be able to pull through for her. When referring to which two BAFTA nominees potentially could have received the most amount of votes, if you believe it to be Gaga, then she’s in. If you think she could have been a jury selection, she could be vulnerable. No one knows for sure.

The campaign for Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”) has been rebounding since her notorious SAG snub. Still, as Variety’s Owen Gleiberman pointed out, the “snub” may have helped rally the acting branch troops to give her a long-overdue nom.

Penélope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”) surged in the final days of voting, and despite missing all the precursors, the Oscar-winning actress (“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”) looks close to reserving her fourth career nom. If recognized, she would be the fifth woman to receive two lead actress nominations for non-English performances (joining Sophia Loren, Liv Ullman, Isabelle Adjani and Marion Cotillard).

Jennifer Hudson (“Respect”) landed a critical SAG nom and is well-liked among her colleagues in the acting branch, especially as a former winner for “Dreamgirls,” and the added bump of an original song Oscar play as well. The SAG nominations for best actress have averaged four out of its five picks, translating to the Academy. The last time they matched up was in 2009; coincidentally, the first year, the Academy expanded to 10 best picture nominees, which returns this year. Could that be a sign?

Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”), who indeed is remarkable in the Searchlight Pictures dramedy, has the same track record as her competitors, Colman and Kidman, showing up at all of the televised ceremonies as a nominee, except for BAFTA. A two-time nominee for “The Help” (2011) and “Zero Dark Thirty” (2012), there’s a narrative of “overdue” that surrounds the actress that could kick in if she’s recognized. The prediction of her miss mimics other actresses who have had similar runs in the precursors but have come up short in the end, such as Lupita Nyong’o (“Us”), Emily Blunt (“Mary Poppins Returns”), Judi Dench (“Victoria & Abdul”) and Jennifer Aniston (“Cake”). Also similar, those films weren’t contending in too many other categories, such as “Tammy Faye, ” only vying for a makeup slot. She probably needed a potential double nod for her co-star Andrew Garfield (who’s nearly locked for lead actor for “Tick, Tick … Boom!”) to be more likely.

More importantly, this category, like director and lead actor (sensing a trend?), has multiple former nominees and winners in the running, devoid of multiple first-time nominees in the running for spots. Even though the best actress 2013 lineup had four winners, and one former nominee – Amy Adams (“American Hustle”), Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine”), Sandra Bullock (“Gravity”), Judi Dench (“Philomena”) and Meryl Streep (“August: Osage County”), you have to travel back to 1994 for another occurrence – Jessica Lange (“Blue Sky”), Jodie Foster (“Nell”), Miranda Richardson (“Tom & Viv”), Winona Ryder (“Little Women”) and Susan Sarandon (“The Client”).

This stat could bode well potential BAFTA top-two vote-getters Alana Haim (“Licorice Pizza”), Emilia Jones (“CODA”), Renate Reinsve (“The Worst Person in the World”) and Tessa Thompson (“Passing”) or Golden Globe winner Rachel Zegler (“West Side Story”). Another interesting stat favoring Zegler is the last person to win the lead actress comedy Globe from a movie that received a best picture nom but failed to garner an Oscar nom was Kathleen Turner for “Prizzi’s Honor” (1985).

My final predictions column is here, with full rankings and commentary updated before nominations.

Precursor Awards Leader: Kristen Stewart, “Spencer” (Neon/Topic Studios)
Awards Season Calendar

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Actress)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The most prominent Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. Katharine Hepburn has the most awards in this category with four.

In contrast, 13 women have won two each – Ingrid Bergman, Bette Davis, Sally Field, Jane Fonda, Jodie Foster, Olivia de Havilland, Glenda Jackson, Vivien Leigh, Frances McDormand, Luise Rainer, Meryl Streep, Hilary Swank and Elizabeth Taylor. Streep has the most nominations in this category with 17, Hepburn has 12, and Davis has 10. The oldest winner is Jessica Tandy at 80 for “Driving Miss Daisy,” The oldest nominee is Emmanuelle Riva at 85 for “Amour.” The youngest winner at 21 is Marlee Matlin (“Children of a Lesser God”), and the youngest nominee at 9 is Quvenzhané Wallis (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”).

2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

• The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022

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